Working Paper: NBER ID: w24744
Authors: Douglas Gollin; Casper Worm Hansen; Asger Wingender
Abstract: We examine the economic impact of high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs) in developing countries 1960-2000. We use time variation in the development and diffusion of HYVs of 10 major crops, spatial variation in agro-climatically suitability for growing them, and a differences-in-differences strategy to identify the causal effects of adoption. In a sample of 84 counties, we estimate that a 10 percentage points increase in HYV adoption increases GDP per capita by about 15 percent. This effect is fully accounted for by the direct effect on crop yields, factor adjustment, and structural transformation. We also find that HYV adoption reduced both fertility and mortality.
Keywords: Green Revolution; High-Yielding Varieties; Economic Growth; Agricultural Productivity; Demographic Changes
JEL Codes: N50; O11; O13; O50; Q16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| High-yielding varieties (HYVs) adoption (Q16) | GDP per capita (O49) |
| High-yielding varieties (HYVs) adoption (Q16) | crop yields (Q15) |
| High-yielding varieties (HYVs) adoption (Q16) | reductions in fertility rates (J13) |
| High-yielding varieties (HYVs) adoption (Q16) | reductions in mortality rates (I14) |
| High-yielding varieties (HYVs) adoption (Q16) | lower birth rates (J19) |
| High-yielding varieties (HYVs) adoption (Q16) | increases in life expectancy (I14) |
| High-yielding varieties (HYVs) adoption (Q16) | economic development (O29) |
| High-yielding varieties (HYVs) adoption (Q16) | demographic trends (J11) |