Working Paper: NBER ID: w24726
Authors: Benjamin Feigenberg; Conrad Miller
Abstract: The US criminal justice system is exceptionally punitive. We test whether racial heterogeneity is one cause, exploiting cross-jurisdiction variation in punishment in four Southern states. We estimate the causal effect of jurisdiction on arrest charge outcome, validating our estimates using a quasi-experimental research design based on defendants charged in multiple jurisdictions. Consistent with a model of in-group bias in electorate preferences, the relationship between local punishment severity and black population share follows an inverted U-shape. Within states, defendants are 27%-54% more likely to be sentenced to incarceration in ‘peak’ heterogeneous jurisdictions than in homogeneous jurisdictions.
Keywords: racial heterogeneity; punishment severity; criminal justice; southern states; electoral preferences
JEL Codes: J15; K14; K41; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| racial heterogeneity (J15) | local punishment severity (K13) |
| local punishment severity (K13) | black population share (J79) |
| black population share (J79) | local punishment severity (K13) |
| local electoral preferences (D79) | punishment outcomes (K40) |
| jurisdiction fixed effects (C23) | causal links (C22) |
| mover-based strategy (L10) | punishment severity estimates (K40) |