Working Paper: NBER ID: w24725
Authors: Brian Beach; Joseph P. Ferrie; Martin H. Saavedra
Abstract: Almond (2006) argues that in-utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic lowered socioeconomic status in adulthood, whereas subsequent work has argued that exposed cohorts may have been selected. We bring new evidence on the lasting impact of in-utero exposure to the pandemic. Linking census microdata to WWII enlistment records and city-level influenza data allows us to adopt an empirical approach that exploits pandemic intensity as a source of identifying variation. We show that pandemic intensity is less related to parental characteristics, suggesting this approach can more credibly be interpreted as causal. Our results indicate that in-utero exposure to the pandemic lowered high school graduation rates.
Keywords: Influenza Pandemic; Human Capital; Educational Attainment
JEL Codes: I1; J0; N12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| In utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic (I12) | educational outcomes (I26) |
| Higher pandemic intensity (F44) | educational attainment (I21) |
| Controlling for parental characteristics (J12) | estimates of pandemic effects (E37) |
| 1919 birth cohort (N32) | educational attainment (I21) |
| In utero exposure to the pandemic (J13) | high school graduation rates (I21) |
| 1919 cohort's family characteristics (J12) | educational outcomes (I26) |