Working Paper: NBER ID: w24536
Authors: Frank R. Lichtenberg
Abstract: This study employs a two-way fixed effects research design to measure the mortality impact and cost-effectiveness of cancer drugs: it analyzes the correlation across 36 countries between relative mortality from 19 types of cancer in 2015 and the relative number of drugs previously launched in that country to treat that type of cancer, controlling for relative incidence.\nOne additional drug for a cancer site launched during 2006-2010 is estimated to have reduced the number of 2015 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to cancer at that site by 5.8%. The estimated cost per life-year gained at all ages in 2015 from cancer drugs launched during 2006-2010 is $1635.\nWe estimate that drugs launched during the entire 1982-2010 period reduced the number of cancer DALYs lost in 2015 by about 23%. In the absence of new drug launches during 1982-2010, there would have been 26.3 million additional DALYs lost in 2015.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I10; J10; L65; O33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| One additional drug for a cancer site launched during 2006-2010 (L65) | Reduced number of DALYs due to cancer at that site by 58 in 2015 (I12) |
| One additional drug launched during 1982-2005 (L65) | Reduced the number of DALYs by about 26 (I14) |
| Drugs launched during the entire 1982-2010 period (L65) | Reduced the number of cancer DALYs in 2015 by about 230 (I14) |
| Without new drug launches (L65) | There would have been 263 million additional DALYs lost in 2015 (J17) |
| Countries with the largest number of drug launches during 1982-2010 (L65) | Experienced 14% fewer cancer DALYs (I12) |
| Drug launches 5-9 years prior (L65) | Significant inverse relationship with mortality (I12) |