Working Paper: NBER ID: w2448
Authors: David E. Bloom; Richard B. Freeman
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth in developing countries from 1965 to 1985. Our results indicate that developing countries were able to shift their labor force from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors, and to increase productivity within those sectors, despite the rapid growth of their populations. We also find that at given rates of population growth, income growth is related to the time path of population growth and that population growth due to high birth and death rates is associated with slower income growth than population growth due to relatively low birth and death rates. Hence, the timing and components of population growth are important elements in the process of economic development.
Keywords: Population Growth; Economic Growth; Developing Countries; Labor Force; Demographic Transition
JEL Codes: J11; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| population growth (J11) | economic growth (O49) |
| high birth and death rates (J11) | slower income growth (F62) |
| lower birth and death rates (J11) | more favorable economic outcomes (P17) |
| timing of population growth (J11) | income growth (O49) |
| average rates of population growth (J11) | per capita income growth (O49) |
| population growth (1980-1985) (J11) | per capita income growth (O49) |
| sectoral shifts (L16) | productivity growth (O49) |