Working Paper: NBER ID: w24464
Authors: Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy E. Reichman
Abstract: This study explores how a major public policy change—the implementation of welfare reform in the U.S. in the 1990s—shaped the age gradient in female crime. We used FBI arrest data to investigate the age-patterning of the effects of welfare reform on women’s arrests for property crime, the type of crime women are most likely to commit and that welfare reform has been shown to affect. We found that women’s property crime arrest rates declined over the age span; that welfare reform led to an overall reduction in adult women’s property crime arrests of about 4%, with the strongest effects for women ages 25–29 and in their 40s; that the effects were slightly stronger in states with stricter work incentives; and that the effects were much stronger in states with high criminal justice expenditures and staffing. The key contributions of this study are the focus on a broad and relevant policy-based “turning point” (change in circumstances that can lead people to launch or desist from criminal careers), addressing the general question of how a turning point shapes age gradients in criminal behavior, and the focus on women in the context of the age patterning of crime.
Keywords: welfare reform; female crime; age gradient; public policy; criminal justice
JEL Codes: I38; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Welfare reform (I38) | Reduction in adult women's property crime arrests (K42) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Stronger effects for women aged 25-29 (J16) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Stronger effects for women in their 40s (J16) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Acceleration of decisions to desist from crime among older women (J26) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Age-crime gradient steepened post-reform (K14) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Stronger effects in states with stricter work incentives (H31) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Stronger effects in states with high criminal justice expenditures (H76) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Minimal effects on women aged 21-24 (J16) |
| Welfare reform (I38) | Reduction in property crime arrests (45%) (K42) |