Working Paper: NBER ID: w24447
Authors: Valentina Bosetti; Cristina Cattaneo; Giovanni Peri
Abstract: There is extensive evidence that higher temperature increases the probability of local conflict. There is also some evidence that emigration represents an important margin of adaptation to climatic change. In this paper we analyse whether migration influences the link between warming and conflicts by either attenuating the effects in countries of origin and/or by spreading them to countries of destination. We find that in countries where emigration propensity, as measured by past diaspora, was higher, increases in temperature had a smaller effects on conflict probability, consistent with emigration functioning as "escape valve" for local tensions. We find no evidence that climate-induced migration increased the probability of conflict in receiving countries.
Keywords: climate change; migration; conflict; diaspora; temperature
JEL Codes: F22; H56; Q34; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increase in temperature (Q54) | probability of civil conflict (D74) |
| increase in temperature (Q54) | probability of civil conflict (low diaspora) (F51) |
| emigration (F22) | mitigate effects of climate change on conflict (Q34) |
| climate-induced migration (F22) | probability of conflict in receiving countries (F51) |