Working Paper: NBER ID: w2440
Authors: Christina Romer
Abstract: This paper uses simple time series techniques to analyze changes in the short-run behavior of 38 physical production series for 1889-1984. The main finding is that fluctuations in these output series in the periods 1889-1914 and 1947-1984 are very similar, while those in the period 1922- 1939 are anomalous. Relative to the prewar era, the postwar era exhibits only a slight damping of fluctuations and no increase in the persistence of short-run movements. At the same time, the correlation between the growth rates of the 38 goods is very low in both the prewar and postwar eras and has declined slightly over time.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Volatility of production series in the prewar (1889-1914) (N13) | Volatility of production series in the postwar (1947-1984) (E32) |
| Persistence of short-run fluctuations in the prewar (1889-1914) (N13) | Persistence of short-run fluctuations in the postwar (1947-1984) (E32) |
| Correlation between growth rates of various goods in the prewar (1889-1914) (N13) | Correlation between growth rates of various goods in the postwar (1947-1984) (O40) |