Working Paper: NBER ID: w24364
Authors: kimberly bayard; emin dinlersoz; timothy dunne; john haltiwanger; javier miranda; john stevens
Abstract: This paper reports on the development and analysis of a newly constructed dataset on the early stages of business formation. The data are based on applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) submitted in the United States, known as IRS Form SS-4 filings. The goal of the research is to develop high-frequency indicators of business formation at the national, state, and local levels. The analysis indicates that EIN applications provide forward-looking and very timely information on business formation. The signal of business formation provided by counts of applications is improved by using the characteristics of the applications to model the likelihood that applicants become employer businesses. The results also suggest that EIN applications are related to economic activity at the local level. For example, application activity is higher in counties that experienced higher employment growth since the end of the Great Recession, and application counts grew more rapidly in counties engaged in shale oil and gas extraction. Finally, the paper provides a description of new public-use dataset, the “Business Formation Statistics (BFS),” that contains new data series on business applications and formation. The initial release of the BFS shows that the number of business applications in the 3rd quarter of 2017 that have relatively high likelihood of becoming job creators is still far below pre-Great Recession levels.
Keywords: business formation; employer identification numbers; entrepreneurship; economic activity
JEL Codes: C81; E17; L26; M13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| application activity (L84) | local economic conditions (R11) |
| local economic conditions (R11) | EIN applications (H26) |
| higher application activity (I23) | greater employment growth (O49) |
| EIN applications (H26) | business formation (L26) |
| applications indicating plans to hire (J68) | employer businesses (L26) |
| wage date presence (J31) | likelihood of transitioning to employer business (L26) |