Working Paper: NBER ID: w24355
Authors: Kasey Buckles; Daniel Hungerman; Steven Lugauer
Abstract: Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.
Keywords: Fertility; Economic Indicators; Conceptions; Recessions
JEL Codes: E32; E37; J11; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic conditions (E66) | Fertility behavior (J13) |
| Fertility behavior (J13) | Conception rates (J13) |
| Conception growth rate (O47) | Leading economic indicator (E32) |
| Conception growth rate declines (J11) | Economic downturns (E32) |
| Conception growth rate declines (J11) | GDP growth rate (O49) |