Working Paper: NBER ID: w24345
Authors: Gerardo Della Paolera; Xavier H. Duran Amorocho; Aldo Musacchio
Abstract: We use new manufacturing GDP time series to examine the industrialization in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia since the early twentieth century. We uncover variation across countries and over time that the literature on industrialization had overlooked. Rather than providing a single explanation of how specific shocks or policies shaped the industrialization of the region, our argument is that the timing of the industrial take off was linked to initial conditions, while external shocks and macroeconomic and trade policy explain the variation in the rates of industrialization after the 1930s and favorable terms of trade and liberalization explain de-industrialization after 1990.
Keywords: Industrialization; South America; Argentina; Brazil; Chile; Colombia
JEL Codes: N66; N86; O14; O24; O25; O4; O43
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| initial conditions (C62) | timing of industrial takeoff (N13) |
| urbanization (R11) | timing of industrial takeoff (N13) |
| literacy (G53) | timing of industrial takeoff (N13) |
| infrastructure (H54) | timing of industrial takeoff (N13) |
| external shocks (F69) | industrialization rates (O14) |
| macroeconomic policies (E60) | industrialization rates (O14) |
| trade policies (F13) | industrial growth (O25) |
| favorable terms of trade (F14) | industrialization rates (O14) |
| economic liberalization (P19) | deindustrialization (L52) |