Working Paper: NBER ID: w24337
Authors: Ioana Marinescu
Abstract: The universal basic income has become a widely discussed measure in policy circles around the world. In this review, we cover the evidence relevant to its potential impact in the US, and in developed countries more generally. Many studies find no statistically significant effect of an unconditional cash transfer on the probability of working. In the studies that do find an effect on labor supply, the effect is small: a 10% income increase induced by an unconditional cash transfer decreases labor supply by about 1%. The evidence shows that an unconditional cash transfer can improve health and educational outcomes, and decrease criminality and drug & alcohol use, especially among the most disadvantaged youths.
Keywords: unconditional cash transfers; universal basic income; labor supply; health outcomes; education outcomes
JEL Codes: H24; I18; I28; I38; J21; J22
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| unconditional cash transfers (H53) | labor supply (J20) |
| 10% increase in income from unconditional cash transfers (H53) | labor supply (J20) |
| negative income tax (H24) | employment rates (J68) |
| negative income tax (H24) | nutrition (I15) |
| negative income tax (H24) | educational outcomes (I26) |
| negative income tax (H24) | hospitalizations (I19) |
| casino dividend payments (G35) | educational outcomes (I26) |
| casino dividend payments (G35) | crime (K42) |