Working Paper: NBER ID: w24332
Authors: Michael Geruso; Heather Royer
Abstract: We examine the impact of educational attainment on fertility and mating market outcomes. Using a regression discontinuity design, we exploit an extension of the compulsory schooling age from 15 to 16 in 1972 in the UK. The change was binding for a quarter of the population. Simple plots of the raw data show substantially lower teen fertility rates across the threshold of the reform, but no impacts on abortions and no impact on completed fertility by age 45. In the mating market, the reform induced both men and women to marry more educated mates, consistent with positive assortative mating. We show that timing of the teen fertility reduction coincided with the timing of the extra induced schooling and that the probability of marrying a peer in the same academic cohort rose. These results suggest that school attendance may have important direct effects, in addition to and separate from the human capital effects of education.
Keywords: Education; Fertility; Family Formation; Mating Market; Compulsory Schooling
JEL Codes: I26; J12; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| decline in fertility rates at ages 16 and 17 (J13) | decrease in conceptions (J13) |
| extra year of compulsory schooling (A21) | decline in fertility rates at ages 16 and 17 (J13) |
| extra year of compulsory schooling (A21) | increase in women marrying men with credentials (J12) |
| extra year of compulsory schooling (A21) | increase in men marrying women with credentials (J12) |
| extra year of compulsory schooling (A21) | decline in shotgun marriages (J12) |
| extra year of compulsory schooling (A21) | impacts on mating market outcomes (J79) |
| extra year of compulsory schooling (A21) | no significant alteration of completed family size by age 45 (J12) |