Working Paper: NBER ID: w24303
Authors: Susan W. Parker; Tom Vogl
Abstract: Conditional cash transfer programs have spread to over 60 countries in the past two decades, but little is known about their long-term effects. We estimate the lasting impact of childhood exposure to Mexico’s flagship program Progresa by leveraging the age structure of benefits and geographic variation in early program penetration nationwide. Childhood exposure improves women’s outcomes in early adulthood, with increases in educational attainment, geographic mobility, labor market performance, and household living standards. For men, effects are smaller and more difficult to distinguish from spatial convergence.
Keywords: Conditional Cash Transfers; Economic Outcomes; Progresa; Mexico; Intergenerational Effects
JEL Codes: I25; I38; J24; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | educational attainment (I21) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | women's labor market participation (J21) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | paid work participation (J29) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | labor earnings (J31) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | housing conditions (R21) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | durable goods ownership (L68) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | educational attainment (for men) (I26) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | migration (for men) (J61) |
| increased education (I24) | women's labor market participation (J21) |