Working Paper: NBER ID: w24300
Authors: Susan Payne Carter; Abigail Wozniak
Abstract: We use exogenously determined, long-distance relocations of U.S. Army soldiers to investigate the impact of moving on marriage. We find that marriage rates increase sharply around the time of a move in an event study analysis. Reduced form exposure analysis reveals that an additional move over a five year period increases the likelihood of marriage by 14 percent. Moves increase childbearing by a similar magnitude, suggesting that marriages induced by a move are formed with long-term intentions. These findings are consistent with a model where the marriage decision is costly and relocation lowers the costs to making this decision. Our results have implications for understanding how people make major life decisions such as marriage, as well as the cost of migration.
Keywords: marriage; relocation; U.S. Army; family structure; economic decision making
JEL Codes: J1; J12; J13; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| relocation (J62) | marriage rates (J12) |
| relocation (J62) | childbearing rates (J13) |
| first move (Y20) | marriage rates (J12) |
| subsequent moves (Y50) | marriage rates (J12) |
| marriage rates (J12) | divorce rates (J12) |