Working Paper: NBER ID: w24277
Authors: Dhaval M. Dave; Daniel Dench; Michael Grossman; Donald S. Kenkel; Henry Saffer
Abstract: Only recently introduced into the U.S. market, e-cigarettes have been aggressively promoted, and use is increasing rapidly among both adults and youths. At the heart of the regulatory debate are fundamental questions regarding whether e-cigarettes will draw cigarette smokers away from a dangerous habit or lure new initiates into tobacco use. We provide some of the first causal evidence on whether e-cigarette advertising on television and in magazines (which comprise about 90% of total media spending on e-cigarettes) encourage adult smokers to quit. We find that the answer to this question is a yes for TV advertising but no for magazine advertising. Our results indicate that a policy to ban TV advertising of e-cigarettes would have reduced the number of smokers who quit in the recent past by approximately 3%, resulting in roughly 105,000 fewer quitters in that period. On the other hand, if the FDA were not considering regulations and mandates that would likely eliminate many e-cigarette producers during our sample period, e-cigarette ads might have reached the number of nicotine replacement therapy TV ads during that period. That would have increased the number of smokers who quit by around 10%, resulting in an additional 350,000 quitters.
Keywords: e-cigarettes; advertising; smoking cessation; public health
JEL Codes: I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| TV advertising exposure (M37) | likelihood of adult smokers quitting (J26) |
| each additional TV ad seen (M37) | number of adults who quit smoking (J26) |
| ban on TV advertising (M38) | fewer smokers quitting (J26) |
| e-cigarette ads at levels of nicotine replacement therapy ads (M38) | number of smokers who quit (J26) |
| magazine advertising exposure (M37) | likelihood of adult smokers quitting (J26) |