Working Paper: NBER ID: w24191
Authors: Michael Gilraine; Hugh Macartney; Robert McMillan
Abstract: We propose an approach for credibly estimating indirect sorting effects of major education reforms and placing them alongside the reforms' direct and persistent effects for the first time. Applying our approach to California's state-wide class size reduction program, we estimate a large positive direct effect of smaller classes on test scores and an even larger indirect effect due to demographic changes as private school students switch into public schools; both effects also persist. Accounting for sorting using these estimates raises the program's benefit-cost ratio significantly. Further, our analysis indicates that indirect sorting is likely relevant in policy evaluations more generally.
Keywords: Education Reform; Class Size Reduction; Sorting Effects; Test Scores; Public Policy
JEL Codes: H40; I21; I22
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| CSR reform (G38) | reduction in private school shares (I21) |
| reduction in private school shares (I21) | increase in public elementary school enrollment (H52) |
| CSR reform (G38) | changes in sociodemographic composition of public schools (J45) |
| CSR reform (G38) | positive effects on test scores (I24) |
| reduction in private school shares (I21) | changes in sociodemographic composition of public schools (J45) |
| CSR reform (G38) | indirect effects on test scores (I24) |