Working Paper: NBER ID: w24106
Authors: Gregori Galofré Vila; Christopher M. Meissner; Martin McKee; David Stuckler
Abstract: We study the link between fiscal austerity and Nazi electoral success. Voting data from a thousand districts and a hundred cities for four elections between 1930 and 1933 shows that areas more affected by austerity (spending cuts and tax increases) had relatively higher vote shares for the Nazi party. We also find that the localities with relatively high austerity experienced relatively high suffering (measured by mortality rates) and these areas’ electorates were more likely to vote for the Nazi party. Our findings are robust to a range of specifications including an instrumental variable strategy and a border-pair policy discontinuity design.
Keywords: austerity; nazis; radical voters; dictatorship
JEL Codes: N14; N34; N44; D7; D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Austerity measures (E65) | Increased suffering (mortality rates) (I12) |
| Increased suffering (mortality rates) (I12) | Nazi electoral support (K16) |
| Austerity measures (E65) | Nazi electoral support (K16) |
| Austerity measures (E65) | Nazi electoral support (K16) |