Working Paper: NBER ID: w24056
Authors: Robert C. Feenstra; Hong Ma; Yuan Xu
Abstract: We examine the employment responses to import competition from China and to global export expansion from the United States, both of which have been expanding strongly during the past decades. We find that although Chinese imports reduce jobs, at both the industry level and the local commuting zone level, the global export expansion of US products also creates a considerable number of jobs. On balance over the entire 1991-2007 period, job gains due to changes in US global exports were slightly less than job losses due to Chinese imports. Using data at both the industry level and the commuting zone level, we find a net loss of around 0.2-0.3 million jobs. When we extend the analysis to 1991-2011, we find the net job effect of import and export exposure is roughly balanced at the commuting zone level.
Keywords: Exports; Employment; Import Competition; Trade Liberalization
JEL Codes: F14; F16; J23; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Chinese imports (F14) | job losses (J63) |
| U.S. export expansion (F10) | job opportunities (J68) |
| U.S. export expansion net of Chinese import penetration (F14) | net job gain (J23) |
| Import exposure (Y60) | job losses (J63) |
| Export expansion (Y60) | job creation (J68) |
| U.S. export expansion (F10) | offset job losses from imports (F16) |
| Net job loss due to import and export exposure (F66) | net job change (J62) |