Working Paper: NBER ID: w24022
Authors: Robert C. Feenstra; Akira Sasahara
Abstract: We quantify the impact on U.S. employment from imports and exports during 1995-2011, using the World Input-Output Database. We find that the growth in U.S. exports led to increased demand for 2 million jobs in manufacturing, 0.5 million in resource industries, and a remarkable 4.1 million jobs in services, totaling 6.6 million. One-third of those service sector jobs are due to the intermediate demand from merchandise (manufacturing and resource) exports, so the total labor demand gain due to merchandise exports was 3.7 million jobs. In comparison, U.S. merchandise imports from China led to reduced demand of 1.4 million jobs in manufacturing and 0.6 million in services (with small losses in resource industries), with total job losses of 2.0 million. It follows that the expansion in U.S. merchandise exports to the world relative to imports from China over 1995-2011 created net demand for about 1.7 million jobs. Comparing the growth of U.S. merchandise exports to merchandise imports from all countries, we find a fall in net labor demand due to trade, but comparing the growth of total U.S. exports to total imports from all countries, then there is a rise in net labor demand because of the growth in service exports.
Keywords: China shock; U.S. employment; global input-output analysis; trade effects
JEL Codes: E16; F14; F60; O19
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| service sector job gains (L84) | two-thirds attributable to service exports (F10) |
| service sector job gains (L84) | one-third attributable to intermediate demand from merchandise exports (F10) |
| total U.S. exports growth (F10) | net increase in labor demand due to growth of service exports (J23) |
| growth in U.S. exports from 1995 to 2011 (F10) | increase in demand for approximately 6.6 million jobs (J23) |
| growth in U.S. exports from 1995 to 2011 (F10) | increase in demand for 2 million jobs in manufacturing (J23) |
| growth in U.S. exports from 1995 to 2011 (F10) | increase in demand for 0.5 million jobs in resource industries (J23) |
| growth in U.S. exports from 1995 to 2011 (F10) | increase in demand for 4.1 million jobs in services (J23) |
| imports from China (F14) | loss of 2 million jobs (F66) |
| imports from China (F14) | loss of 1.4 million jobs in manufacturing (F66) |
| imports from China (F14) | loss of 0.6 million jobs in services (J68) |
| U.S. merchandise exports expansion relative to imports from China (F10) | net job creation of about 1.7 million jobs (J23) |