Working Paper: NBER ID: w23946
Authors: Benjamin Marx; Vincent Pons; Tavneet Suri
Abstract: In a large-scale randomized experiment implemented with Kenya’s Electoral Commission in 2013, text messages intended to mobilize voters boosted electoral participation. However, the messages also decreased trust in electoral institutions after the election. This decrease was stronger for individuals on the losing side of the election and in areas that experienced election-related violence. We hypothesize that the mobilization campaign backfired because the Electoral Commission promised a transparent and orderly electoral process but failed to deliver on these expectations. Several potential mechanisms account for the intervention’s unexpected effects, including a simple model where signaling capacity via mobilization messages can negatively affect beliefs about the fairness of the election.
Keywords: Elections; Electoral Institutions; Trust; Field Experiment; Kenya
JEL Codes: O55; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| voter turnout (K16) | trust towards the IEBC (K16) |
| text message mobilization campaign (L96) | voter expectations (K16) |
| voter expectations (K16) | trust towards the IEBC (K16) |
| text message mobilization campaign (L96) | voter turnout (K16) |
| text message mobilization campaign (L96) | trust towards the IEBC (K16) |