Working Paper: NBER ID: w23932
Authors: Barry Eichengreen; Michael R. Haines; Matthew S. Jaremski; David Leblang
Abstract: The 1896 presidential election between William Jennings Bryan and William McKinley has gained new salience in the wake of the 2016 contest. We provide the first systematic analysis of voting patterns in 1896, combining county-level returns with economic, financial, demographic and climatological data. Specifically, we consider the economic concerns of the Populists with falling crop prices, high interest rates and railroad monopolies. We show that Bryan did well where mortgage interest rates were high, railroad penetration was low, and crop prices had declined by most over the previous decade. Using our estimates, we show that further declines in crop prices or increases in interest rates would have been enough to tip the Electoral College in Bryan’s favor. But to change the outcome, the additional fall in crop prices would have had to be large. The counterfactual increase in interest rates appears, at first blush, to have been more modest. But where previous authors have argued that interest rates came down in the 1890s because of the entry of additional banks, our estimates indicate that bank entry would have had to be very significantly slower to tip the election. There is no question that economic grievances mattered in 1896. But small or even moderate changes in economic conditions would not have changed the outcome of the election.
Keywords: Populism; 1896 Election; Economic Factors; Voting Patterns
JEL Codes: N0; N11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic grievances (D63) | electoral outcome (K16) |
| high mortgage interest rates (G21) | Bryan's performance (Y60) |
| low railroad penetration (L92) | Bryan's performance (Y60) |
| significant declines in crop prices (Q11) | Bryan's performance (Y60) |
| further decline in crop prices (Q11) | electoral outcome (K16) |
| increase in interest rates (E43) | electoral outcome (K16) |
| entry of banks (G21) | lower interest rates (E43) |
| significant reduction in bank entry (G21) | interest rates (E43) |
| economic grievances (D63) | change in election outcome (K16) |