Working Paper: NBER ID: w23890
Authors: Keith Meyers; Melissa A. Thomasson
Abstract: We leverage the 1916 polio pandemic in the United States as a natural experiment to test whether short-term school closures result in reduced educational attainment as an adult. With over 23,000 cases of polio diagnosed in 1916, officials implemented quarantines and closed schools. Since the pandemic occurred during the start of the 1916 school year, children of working age may have elected not to return to school. Using state-level polio morbidity as a proxy for schooling disruptions, we find that children ages 14-17 during the pandemic had less educational attainment in 1940 compared to their slightly older peers.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I18; I26; N22; N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 1916 polio pandemic (N92) | educational attainment (I21) |
| polio morbidity rates (I12) | educational attainment (I21) |
| age cohort (14-17) (L26) | educational attainment (I21) |
| school closures (J65) | educational attainment (I21) |
| migration patterns (F22) | educational attainment (I21) |