Working Paper: NBER ID: w23827
Authors: Michael R. Haines
Abstract: This paper looks at the fertility and mortality experience of racial and ethnic groups in the United States from the early 20th century to the present. The first part consist of a description and critique of the racial and ethnic categories used in the federal census and in the published vital statistics. The second part looks at these two dimensions of demographic behavior. There has been both absolute and relative convergence of fertility across groups. It has been of relatively recent origin and has been due, in large part, to stable birth rates for the majority white population combined with declining birth rates for blacks and the Asian-origin, Hispanic-origin, and American Indian populations. This has not been true for mortality. The black population has experienced absolute convergence but relative deterioration in mortality (neonatal and infant mortality, maternal mortality, expectation of life at birth, and age-adjusted death rates), in contrast to the American Indian and Asian-origin populations. The Asian-origin population actually now has age-adjusted death rates significantly lower than those for the white population. The disadvantaged condition of the black population and the deteriorating social safety net are the likely origins of this outcome. This is a clear indication of relative inequality, as the black population is not sharing as much in the mortality improvements in recent decades.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I14; N12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Stable birth rates among the white population (J11) | Convergence of fertility rates across racial and ethnic groups (J19) |
| Declining birth rates among black, Asian-origin, Hispanic-origin, and American Indian populations (J11) | Convergence of fertility rates across racial and ethnic groups (J19) |
| Socioeconomic conditions (P36) | Health outcomes of the black population (I14) |
| Disadvantaged conditions of the black population (I14) | Relative health outcomes of the black population (I14) |
| Deteriorating social safety net (I38) | Relative health outcomes of the black population (I14) |
| Absolute convergence in mortality rates of the black population (J11) | Relative deterioration in various mortality metrics compared to whites (I14) |