Working Paper: NBER ID: w23786
Authors: Michael D. Bordo
Abstract: The recent rise of populist anti-globalization political movements has led to concerns that the current wave of globalization that goes back to the 1870s may end in turmoil just like the first wave which ended after World War I. It is too soon to tell. The decline and then levelling off of trade and capital flows in recent years reflects the drastic decline in global real income during the Great Recession. Other factors at work include the slowing down in the growth rate of China and the reversal of the extended international supply chains developed in the 1990s, as well as increased financial regulation across the world after the crisis. This suggests either a pause in the pace of integration or more likely a slowing down, rather than a reversal.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F6; N1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Decline in trade and capital flows (F32) | Drastic decline in global real income during the GFC (F62) |
| Slowdown of China’s growth (F62) | Decline in trade and capital flows (F32) |
| Reversal of international supply chains (F69) | Decline in trade and capital flows (F32) |
| Economic dislocation experienced by certain groups (J79) | Backlash against globalization (F69) |
| Backlash against globalization (F69) | Political reactions such as the election of populist leaders (D72) |