Working Paper: NBER ID: w23756
Authors: Parag Mahajan; Dean Yang
Abstract: How readily do potential migrants respond to increased returns to migration? Even if origin areas become less attractive vis-à-vis migration destinations, fixed costs can prevent increased migration. We examine migration responses to hurricanes, which reduce the attractiveness of origin locations. Restricted-access U.S. Census data allows precise migration measures and analysis of more migrant-origin countries. Hurricanes increase U.S. immigration, with the effect increasing in the size of prior migrant stocks. Large migrant networks reduce fixed costs by facilitating legal immigration from hurricane-affected source countries. Hurricane-induced immigration can be fully accounted for by new legal permanent residents (“green card” holders).
Keywords: Hurricanes; Migrant Networks; U.S. Immigration
JEL Codes: F22; O15; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes (Q54) | U.S. immigration rates (K37) |
| Larger pre-existing stocks of U.S. migrants (J61) | Effect of hurricanes on U.S. immigration rates (K37) |
| Migrant stock (F22) | Legal immigration through family reunification channels (K37) |
| Hurricanes (Q54) | Reduced attractiveness of origin locations (R23) |
| Size of prior migrant stocks (J11) | Fixed migration costs (F29) |