Working Paper: NBER ID: w23594
Authors: Sandra Garcia; Juan Saavedra
Abstract: We meta-analyze for impact and cost-effectiveness 94 studies from 47 conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in low- and middle-income countries worldwide, focusing on educational outcomes that include enrollment, attendance, dropout and school completion. To conceptually guide and interpret the empirical findings of our meta-analysis, we present a simple economic framework of household decision-making that generates predictions, all else constant, for the association between certain program context and design characteristics, and impact estimates. We also present a simple model for the analysis of program costs, using it to compute cost-effectiveness estimates for a subsample of CCT programs. For all schooling outcomes, we find strong support for heterogeneity in impact, transfer-effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness estimates. Our meta-analytic results of impact and transfer-effectiveness estimates provide support to some – but not all – of the predictions from the household decision-making model.
Keywords: conditional cash transfers; education; cost-effectiveness; meta-analysis
JEL Codes: I25; I28; O15; O38; O57
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Program characteristics (C88) | Educational outcomes (I21) |
| Variation in program characteristics (C88) | Heterogeneity in impact and cost-effectiveness estimates (C21) |
| Larger transfer amounts (H87) | Greater educational effect sizes (I24) |
| Stricter attendance and achievement conditions (I24) | Greater educational impacts (I24) |
| Low baseline enrollment levels and excess school capacity (I21) | Stronger educational impacts (I24) |