Working Paper: NBER ID: w23559
Authors: Dani Rodrik
Abstract: Populism may seem like it has come out of nowhere, but it has been on the rise for a while. I argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash. While the backlash may have been predictable, the specific form it took was less so. I distinguish between left-wing and right-wing variants of populism, which differ with respect to the societal cleavages that populist politicians highlight. The first has been predominant in Latin America, and the second in Europe. I argue that these different reactions are related to the relative salience of different types of globalization shocks.
Keywords: Populism; Globalization; Economic Backlash
JEL Codes: F02
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic globalization (F69) | political backlash (D72) |
| globalization shocks (F69) | economic anxiety (F52) |
| economic anxiety (F52) | populism (D72) |
| globalization shocks (F69) | societal cleavages (Z13) |
| societal cleavages (Z13) | populism (D72) |
| narratives (Y40) | populism (D72) |
| economic globalization (F69) | globalization shocks (F69) |