Working Paper: NBER ID: w23510
Authors: John J. Donohue; Abhay Aneja; Kyle D. Weber
Abstract: This paper uses more complete state panel data (through 2014) and new statistical techniques to estimate the impact on violent crime when states adopt right-to-carry (RTC) concealed handgun laws. Our preferred panel data regression specification, unlike the statistical model of Lott and Mustard that had previously been offered as evidence of crime-reducing RTC laws, both satisfies the parallel trends assumption and generates statistically significant estimates showing RTC laws increase overall violent crime. Our synthetic control approach also strongly confirms that RTC laws are associated with 13-15 percent higher aggregate violent crime rates ten years after adoption. Using a consensus estimate of the elasticity of crime with respect to incarceration of 0.15, the average RTC state would need to roughly double its prison population to offset the increase in violent crime caused by RTC adoption.
Keywords: Right-to-Carry Laws; Violent Crime; Panel Data; Synthetic Control
JEL Codes: K0; K14; K4; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| RTC laws (R48) | prison population (K14) |
| RTC laws (R48) | violent crime (K42) |
| RTC laws (R48) | property crime (K11) |
| RTC laws (R48) | violent crime (K42) |