Working Paper: NBER ID: w23490
Authors: Leonardo Bursztyn; Davide Cantoni; Patricia Funk; Felix Schönenberger; Noam Yuchtman
Abstract: We provide evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout, exploiting the precise day-level timing of the release of Swiss national poll results for high-stakes federal referenda, and a novel dataset on daily mail-in voting for the canton of Geneva. Using an event study design, we find that the release of a closer poll causes voter turnout to sharply rise immediately after poll release, with no differential pre-release turnout levels or trends. We provide evidence that polls affect turnout by providing information shaping beliefs about closeness: first, the introduction of Swiss polls had significantly larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available signals of closeness are less correlated with national closeness. Second, the effects of close polls are largest where newspapers report on them most. Counterfactual exercises suggest the importance of polls and reporting on polls in shaping election outcomes.
Keywords: voter turnout; election closeness; Swiss referenda; polls
JEL Codes: D72; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Poll closeness (D79) | Voter beliefs (K16) |
| Voter beliefs (K16) | Voter turnout (K16) |
| Newspaper coverage of close polls (K16) | Voter turnout (K16) |
| Release of closer polls (D79) | Voter turnout (K16) |