Working Paper: NBER ID: w23477
Authors: Taylor Jaworski
Abstract: When private incentives are insufficient, a big push by government may lead to industrialization. This paper uses mobilization for World War II to test the big push hypothesis in the context of postwar industrialization in the American South. Specifically, I investigate the role of capital deepening at the county level using newly assembled data on the location and value of wartime investment. Despite a boom in manufacturing activity during the war, the evidence is not consistent with differential growth in counties that received more investment. This does not rule out positive effects of mobilization on firms or sectors, but a decisive role for wartime capital deepening in the Souths postwar industrial development should be viewed more skeptically.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: N12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Wartime investment (H56) | County-level manufacturing outcomes (L69) |
| Wartime investment (H56) | Reallocation of manufacturing activity (L23) |
| Reallocation of manufacturing activity (L23) | Establishments, employment, or higher wages (J39) |
| Wartime investment (H56) | Growth in the number of establishments in chemicals and rubber (L65) |