Working Paper: NBER ID: w23410
Authors: Leah Platt Boustan; Matthew E. Kahn; Paul W. Rhode; Maria Lucia Yanguas
Abstract: More than 100 natural disasters strike the United States every year, causing extensive fatalities and damages. We construct the universe of US federally designated natural disasters from 1920 to 2010. We find that severe disasters increase out-migration rates at the county level by 1.5 percentage points and lower housing prices/rents by 2.5–5.0 percent. The migration response to milder disasters is smaller but has been increasing over time. The economic response to disasters is most consistent with falling local productivity and labor demand. Disasters that convey more information about future disaster risk increase the pace of out-migration.
Keywords: natural disasters; economic activity; outmigration; housing prices; local productivity
JEL Codes: N42; Q5; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| severe natural disasters (H84) | outmigration rates (F22) |
| severe natural disasters (H84) | housing prices (R31) |
| severe natural disasters (H84) | poverty rates (I32) |
| outmigration rates (F22) | housing prices (R31) |
| severe natural disasters (H84) | local productivity (O49) |
| severe natural disasters (H84) | labor demand (J23) |
| milder disasters (H84) | migration response (F22) |