Working Paper: NBER ID: w23400
Authors: Rafael Dix-Carneiro; Rodrigo R. Soares; Gabriel Ulyssea
Abstract: This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade-induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain bounds on the effect of labor market conditions on crime. Our results indicate that this channel accounts for 75 to 93 percent of the effect of the trade-induced shocks on crime.
Keywords: crime; economic shocks; Brazil; trade liberalization
JEL Codes: F14; F16; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| tariff reductions (F13) | crime rates (K42) |
| labor market conditions (J29) | crime rates (K42) |
| trade-induced shocks (F14) | labor market conditions (J29) |
| trade-induced shocks (F14) | public goods provision (H41) |
| trade-induced shocks (F14) | income inequality (D31) |