Working Paper: NBER ID: w23372
Authors: David S. Jacks; Krishna Pendakur; Hitoshi Shigeoka
Abstract: Exploiting new data on county-level variation in alcohol prohibition from 1933 to 1939, we investigate whether the repeal of federal prohibition increased infant mortality, both in counties that repealed and in their neighboring counties. Using a binomial fixed-effects model, we find that repeal is associated with a 4.0% increase in infant mortality rates in counties that chose wet status via local option elections or state-wide legislation and with a 4.7% increase in neighboring dry counties, suggesting a role for cross-border policy externalities. Cumulatively, these estimates imply 26,960 infant deaths that could potentially be attributed to the repeal of federal prohibition.
Keywords: Infant Mortality; Federal Prohibition; Alcohol Consumption
JEL Codes: H73; I18; J1; N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Repeal of federal prohibition (H77) | Infant mortality rates in wet counties (I12) |
| Repeal of federal prohibition (H77) | Infant mortality rates in dryish counties (I12) |
| Infant mortality rates in wet counties (I12) | Excess infant deaths (J13) |
| Infant mortality rates in dryish counties (I12) | Excess infant deaths (J13) |