Working Paper: NBER ID: w23340
Authors: Antonio Bento; Kenneth Gillingham; Kevin Roth
Abstract: The firm response to regulation is seldom as controversial as in the context of fuel economy standards, a dominant policy to reduce emissions from vehicles worldwide. It has long been argued that such standards lead to vehicle weight changes that increase accident fatalities. Using unconditional quantile regression, we are the first to document the effect of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards on the vehicle weight distribution. We find that on net CAFE reduced fatalities, with lowered mean weight dominating increased dispersion. When monetized, this effect suggests positive net benefits from CAFE even with no undervaluation of fuel economy.
Keywords: fuel economy standards; vehicle weight; accident fatalities; CAFE standards
JEL Codes: H23; I18; Q48; Q58; R41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| CAFE standards (J80) | mean vehicle weight (L92) |
| CAFE standards (J80) | weight dispersion (C46) |
| mean vehicle weight (L92) | fatalities in single-vehicle crashes (R48) |
| mean vehicle weight (L92) | fatalities in multivehicle crashes (R48) |
| weight dispersion (C46) | fatality risks (J17) |
| CAFE standards (J80) | fatalities (J17) |