Working Paper: NBER ID: w23324
Authors: Fatih Guvenen; Raymond J. Mataloni Jr.; Dylan G. Rassier; Kim J. Ruhl
Abstract: We show how offshore profit shifting by U.S. multinational enterprises affects several key measures of the U.S. economy. Profits shifted out of the United States grew rapidly from the mid-1990s to 2010 and have since waned. From 1982–2016, on average, 38 percent of income attributed to U.S. direct investment abroad is reattributable to the United States. We find that adjusting for profit shifting shrinks the trade deficit, decreases the return on U.S. foreign direct investment abroad, boosts productivity growth rates in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and lowers labor’s share of income.
Keywords: Offshore Profit Shifting; Balance of Payments; Foreign Investment; Productivity; Labor Share
JEL Codes: E01; E24; F23; O4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| offshore profit shifting (F23) | U.S. GDP (N12) |
| offshore profit shifting (F23) | U.S. trade deficit (F14) |
| offshore profit shifting (F23) | return on U.S. foreign direct investment (F21) |
| offshore profit shifting (F23) | labor share of income (E25) |
| offshore profit shifting (F23) | productivity growth rates (O49) |