Working Paper: NBER ID: w23289
Authors: Sandra Sequeira; Nathan Nunn; Nancy Qian
Abstract: We study the effects of European immigration to the United States during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1920) on economic prosperity today. We exploit variation in the extent of immigration across counties arising from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and the gradual expansion of the railway network across the United States. We find that locations with more historical immigration today have higher incomes, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment. The long-run effects appear to arise from the persistence of sizeable short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.
Keywords: immigration; economic prosperity; longrun effects; mass migration
JEL Codes: N31; N32; N61; N62; N71; N72; N91; N92
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Historical immigration (K37) | Average per capita income today (D31) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Poverty rates today (I32) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Unemployment rates today (J64) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Urbanization today (R11) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Educational attainment today (I21) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Industrialization (O14) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Agricultural productivity (Q11) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Innovation (O35) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Social cohesion (Z13) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Voter turnout (K16) |
| Historical immigration (K37) | Crime rates (K42) |