Working Paper: NBER ID: w23271
Authors: Garth Heutel; Nolan H. Miller; David Molitor
Abstract: We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. However, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.
Keywords: climate change; mortality; temperature effects; adaptation; public health
JEL Codes: I18; J14; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| hot days (Q54) | mortality (I12) |
| cold days (Y60) | mortality (I12) |
| regional climate (R11) | mortality from hot days (I12) |
| regional climate (R11) | mortality from cold days (I12) |
| warming climate (Q54) | mortality in cooler areas (I12) |
| adaptation to future climate conditions (Q54) | estimated mortality effects of climate change (Q54) |