Working Paper: NBER ID: w23270
Authors: Martin Beraja; Andreas Fuster; Erik Hurst; Joseph Vavra
Abstract: We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts but that these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth. We then build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing with both mortgage borrowers and lenders and use it to explore the aggregate implications for monetary policy arising from our regional evidence. We find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts, thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality, whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions. Taken together, our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time.
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Housing Equity; Refinancing
JEL Codes: E21; E32; E5; R1; R2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| regional distribution of housing equity (R21) | mortgage refinancing activity (G21) |
| mortgage refinancing activity (G21) | consumption (E21) |
| regional distribution of housing equity (R21) | effectiveness of monetary policy (E52) |
| regional distribution of housing equity (R21) | regional consumption inequality (R22) |
| housing equity declines (R31) | limited refinancing activity (G21) |
| high unemployment (J64) | limited refinancing activity (G21) |
| housing equity (R21) | refinancing sensitivity to economic context (G21) |