Working Paper: NBER ID: w23230
Authors: Melissa S. Kearney; Phillip B. Levine
Abstract: A large literature exists on the impact of family structure on children’s outcomes, typically focusing on average effects. We build on this with an economic framework that has heterogeneous predictions regarding the potential benefit for children of married parents. We propose that the gains to marriage from a child’s perspective depend on a mother’s own level of resources, the additional net resources that her partner would bring, and the outcome-specific returns to resources. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are consistent with the heterogeneous predictions of this framework. In terms of high school completion or avoiding poverty at age 25, the “marriage premium for children” is highest for children of mothers with high school degrees and mothers in their early/mid-20s. For the more advanced outcomes of college completion or high income at age 25, the marriage premium is monotonically increasing with observed maternal age and education.
Keywords: Nonmarital Childbearing; Marriage Premium; Children's Outcomes
JEL Codes: I3; J1; J12; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Marriage premium for children (J12) | Additional resources and stability (E63) |
| Mother's education level (I24) | Marriage premium for children (J12) |
| Maternal age (J13) | Marriage premium for children (J12) |
| Marriage premium for children (J12) | High school completion (I21) |
| Marriage premium for children (J12) | Avoiding poverty (I32) |
| Maternal characteristics (J16) | Variation in marriage premium for children (J12) |
| Marriage premium for children (J12) | College completion at age 25 (I21) |
| Marriage premium for children (J12) | High income at age 25 (J31) |