Working Paper: NBER ID: w23207
Authors: Nathan Nunn; Raul Sanchez de la Sierra
Abstract: Across human societies, one sees many examples of deeply rooted and widely-held beliefs that are almost certainly untrue. Examples include beliefs about witchcraft, magic, ordeals, and superstitions. Why are such incorrect beliefs so prevalent and how do they persist? We consider this question through an examination of superstitions and magic associated with conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Focusing on superstitions related to bulletproofing, we provide theory and case-study evidence showing how these incorrect beliefs persist. Although harmful at the individual-level, we show that they generate Pareto efficient outcomes that have group-level benefits.
Keywords: magical beliefs; conflict; superstitions; eastern DRC; bulletproofing
JEL Codes: P16; Z1; Z12; Z13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| belief in magical bulletproofing (F52) | alters individuals’ perceptions of risk in combat (H56) |
| alters individuals’ perceptions of risk in combat (H56) | increased effort in defending their village (H56) |
| belief in magical bulletproofing (F52) | increased effort in defending their village (H56) |
| increased effort in defending their village (H56) | mobilizing the community for collective defense (H56) |