Working Paper: NBER ID: w23204
Authors: Sebastian Edwards
Abstract: In this paper I analyze the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an almost forgotten episode in U.S. monetary history. I study how the Conference shaped dollar policy during the second half of 1933 and early 1934. I use daily data to investigate the way in which the Conference and related policies associated to the gold standard affected commodity prices, bond prices, and the stock market. My results show that the Conference itself did not impact commodity prices or the stock market. However, it had a small effect on bond prices. I do find that the events associated with the abandonment of the gold standard impacted prices in a significant way, even before the actual monetary and currency channels were at work. These results are consistent with the “change in regime” hypothesis of Sargent (1983).
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: B21; B22; B26; E3; E31; E42; F31; N22
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 (F33) | commodity prices (Q02) |
| London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 (F33) | stock market (G10) |
| London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 (F33) | bond prices (G12) |
| abandonment of the gold standard (F33) | commodity prices (Q02) |
| expectations of stabilization (E63) | market perceptions (G14) |
| change of regime hypothesis (O17) | market prices (P22) |