Working Paper: NBER ID: w23198
Authors: Camilo Garcajimeno; Pinar Yildirim
Abstract: We study the strategic interaction between the media and Senate candidates during elections. While the media is instrumental for candidates to communicate with voters, candidates and media outlets have conflicting preferences over the contents of the reporting. In competitive electoral environments such as most US Senate races, this can lead to a strategic environment resembling a matching pennies game. Based on this observation, we develop a model of bipartisan races where media outlets report about candidates, and candidates make decisions on the type of constituencies to target with their statements along the campaign trail. We develop a methodology to classify news content as suggestive of the target audience of candidate speech, and show how data on media reports and poll results, together with the behavioral implications of the model, can be used to estimate its parameters. We implement this methodology on US Senatorial races for the period 1980-2012, and find that Democratic candidates have stronger incentives to target their messages towards turning out their core supporters than Republicans. We also find that the cost in swing-voter support from targeting core supporters is larger for Democrats than for Republicans. These effects balance each other, making media outlets willing to cover candidates from both parties at similar rates.
Keywords: Senate Elections; Media Coverage; Campaign Strategy; Political Communication
JEL Codes: C50; C7; D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Democratic candidates targeting messages towards mobilizing core supporters (D79) | larger cost in swing voter support for Democrats (D72) |
| larger cost in swing voter support for Democrats (D72) | asymmetric response to media coverage (D79) |
| asymmetric response to media coverage (D79) | balance in media coverage (D30) |
| core-targeted statements by Democratic candidates (reported) (D79) | negatively impact support among swing voters (K16) |
| core-targeted statements by Democratic candidates (unreported) (D79) | increase turnout among core supporters (D72) |
| media coverage influences candidates' campaign strategies (D79) | significant impact on electoral outcomes (K16) |