Working Paper: NBER ID: w23175
Authors: John D. Burger; Francis E. Warnock; Veronica Cacdac Warnock
Abstract: Currency denomination is a prominent feature in the analysis of the structure of international bond markets, but is largely absent from analyses of cross-border investment in debt securities. This omission owes in part to the limitations of widely used datasets such as the IMF’s CPIS data (on positions) and its BOP data (on flows): Neither identifies the currency denomination of the underlying bonds and both combine bonds of various currencies in a single data point. In this paper we show that bonds denominated in the investor’s currency are special. We show this indirectly in a global dataset of bilateral bond holdings—indirectly because the global holdings dataset does not differentiate by currency denomination—and then more directly in datasets of US holdings of foreign bonds that do differentiate by currency. We find that the share of a country’s bonds denominated in investors’ currencies is an important determinant of the amount of cross-border investment it receives; factors associated with greater (or less) cross-border investment in bonds differ by currency denomination; and one phenomenon of international portfolios—the ever-present home bias—in some cases actually disappears when bonds are denominated in the investor’s currency, suggesting that the home bias is to some extent a home currency bias.
Keywords: International Bond Markets; Currency Denomination; Cross-Border Investment; Home Bias
JEL Codes: F3; G1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Home bias in asset holdings diminishes when foreign bonds are denominated in the investor's currency (G15) | preference for local currency bonds decreases (G15) |
| Investor-currency bonds (USD-denominated) (G15) | the amount of foreign investment received (F21) |
| U.S. unconventional monetary policy (E52) | the share of emerging market bonds denominated in USD (F31) |
| The share of bonds issued in foreign investors' currencies (G15) | the amount of foreign investment received (F21) |
| The share of investor-currency bonds increases (G15) | the amount of foreign investment increases (F21) |