Working Paper: NBER ID: w23173
Authors: David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon Hanson
Abstract: We exploit the gender-specific components of large-scale labor demand shocks stemming from rising international manufacturing competition to test how shifts in the relative economic stature of young men versus young women affected marriage, fertility and children’s living circumstances during 1990-2014. On average, trade shocks differentially reduce employment and earnings, raise the prevalence of idleness, and elevate premature mortality among young males. Consistent with Becker’s model of household specialization, shocks to male relative stature reduce marriage and fertility. Consistent with sociological accounts, these shocks raise the share of mothers who are unwed and share of children living in below-poverty, single-headed households.
Keywords: manufacturing decline; marriage market; economic stature; trade shocks; fertility
JEL Codes: F16; J12; J13; J21; J23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trade shocks (F14) | reduce marriage and fertility (J12) |
| trade shocks (F14) | raise the share of mothers who are unwed (J12) |
| shocks to manufacturing labor demand (J23) | reduce men's relative employment (J79) |
| shocks to manufacturing labor demand (J23) | reduce annual wage earnings of men (J31) |
| reduced economic stature of young men (J19) | diminishes their marriage market value (J12) |
| labor demand shocks (J23) | increased idleness among young men (J29) |
| economic distress (H84) | higher rates of idleness (J22) |
| economic shocks (F69) | rise in male mortality from drug and alcohol poisoning (I12) |
| declines in male economic prospects (F66) | adverse social outcomes (I14) |
| declines in male economic prospects (F66) | decreased marriage rates (J12) |
| declines in male economic prospects (F66) | increased poverty among children (I32) |