Working Paper: NBER ID: w23164
Authors: Alan De Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
Abstract: International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK’s imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain’s shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot.
Keywords: Trade Policy; Interwar Period; British Empire
JEL Codes: F13; F14; N74
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Trade policy (F13) | Increase in the empire's share of UK imports (N13) |
| Trade policy (F13) | Increase in the empire's share of UK imports between 1930 and 1933 (N13) |
| Quotas (D45) | Significant impact on agricultural imports (Q17) |