Working Paper: NBER ID: w23092
Authors: Bradley Heim; Ithai Lurie; Kosali I. Simon
Abstract: We use panel U.S. tax data spanning 2008-2013 to study the impact of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) young adult provision on two important demographic outcomes—childbearing and marriage. The impact on childbearing is theoretically ambiguous, as gaining insurance may increase access to contraceptive services, while also reducing the out-of-pocket costs of childbirth. The impact on marriage is also ambiguous, as marriage rates may decrease when young adults have less need for dependent health insurance through a spouse, but may increase when they are now allowed to stay on their parent’s plans even if they are married. Changes in childbearing and marriage can, in turn, lead to changes in the likelihood of filing a tax return. Since W-2 forms record access to employer-provided fringe benefits, we were able to examine the impact of the coverage expansion by focusing on young adults whose parents have access to benefits. We compare those who are slightly younger than the age threshold to those who are slightly older. Our results suggest that the ACA young adult provision led to a modest decrease in childbearing and marriage rates, though the propensity to file a tax return did not change significantly.
Keywords: Affordable Care Act; Childbearing; Marriage; Tax Filing Behavior
JEL Codes: I13; J12; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| decrease in childbearing rates among young women (J13) | delayed childbearing (J13) |
| decrease in marriage rates among 24-25 year olds (J12) | influence on demographic behaviors (J11) |
| ACA young adult provision (G52) | decrease in childbearing rates among young women (J13) |
| ACA young adult provision (G52) | decrease in marriage rates among 24-25 year olds (J12) |