Working Paper: NBER ID: w23071
Authors: Alan Gerber; Mitchell Hoffman; John Morgan; Collin Raymond
Abstract: A common feature of many models of voter turnout is that increasing the perceived closeness of the election should increase voter turnout. However, cleanly testing this prediction is difficult and little is known about voter beliefs regarding the closeness of a given race. We conduct a field experiment during the 2010 US gubernatorial elections where we elicit voter beliefs about the closeness of the election before and after showing different polls, which, depending on treatment, indicate a close race or a not close race. We find that subjects update their beliefs in response to new information, but systematically overestimate the probability of a very close election. However, the decision to vote is unaffected by beliefs about the closeness of the election. A follow-up field experiment, conducted during the 2014 gubernatorial elections but at much larger scale, also points to little relationship between poll information about closeness and voter turnout.
Keywords: voter turnout; field experiments; perceived electoral closeness
JEL Codes: D03; D72; H10; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| beliefs about electoral closeness (D79) | voter turnout (K16) |
| beliefs about electoral closeness (D79) | decision to vote (D79) |
| perceived electoral closeness (D79) | beliefs about electoral closeness (D79) |
| close poll treatment (D72) | beliefs about electoral closeness (D79) |
| close poll treatment (D72) | voter turnout (K16) |
| 2014 close poll postcard treatment (L87) | voter turnout (K16) |
| 2010 close poll treatment (D79) | voter turnout (K16) |