Working Paper: NBER ID: w23035
Authors: Christopher Blattman; Mathilde Emeriau; Nathan Fiala
Abstract: A Ugandan government program allowed groups of young people to submit proposals to start skilled enterprises. Among 535 eligible proposals, the government randomly selected 265 to receive grants of nearly $400 per person. Blattman et al. (2014) showed that, after four years, the program raised employment by 17% and earnings 38%. This paper shows that, rather than rewarding the government in elections, beneficiaries increased opposition party membership, campaigning, and voting. Higher incomes are associated with opposition support, and we hypothesize that financial independence frees the poor to express political preferences publicly, being less reliant on patronage and other political transfers.
Keywords: Antipoverty; Voter Behavior; Uganda; Youth Opportunities Program; Political Economy
JEL Codes: C93; D72; F35; O12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Youth Opportunities Program (YOP) (J68) | Political behavior (less support for ruling party) (D72) |
| Youth Opportunities Program (YOP) (J68) | Political engagement with opposition parties (D72) |
| Economic independence from YOP (F29) | Shift in political allegiance (P26) |
| Economic empowerment (O55) | Decoupling political preferences from clientelistic systems (D72) |
| Youth Opportunities Program (YOP) (J68) | Overall election turnout (K16) |
| Youth Opportunities Program (YOP) (J68) | Approval ratings for ruling party (D72) |