Working Paper: NBER ID: w22993
Authors: Jorge Luis García; James J. Heckman; Duncan Ermini Leaf; Mara José Prados
Abstract: This paper estimates the long-term benefits from an influential early childhood program targeting disadvantaged families. The program was evaluated by random assignment and followed participants through their mid-30s. It has substantial beneficial impacts on health, children's future labor incomes, crime, education, and mothers' labor incomes, with greater monetized benefits for males. Lifetime returns are estimated by pooling multiple data sets using testable economic models. The overall rate of return is 13.7% per annum, and the benefit/cost ratio is 7.3. These estimates are robust to numerous sensitivity analyses.
Keywords: early childhood program; lifecycle benefits; disadvantaged families; random assignment; benefit-cost analysis
JEL Codes: C93; I28; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| early childhood program (I21) | health (I19) |
| early childhood program (I21) | labor income (J39) |
| early childhood program (I21) | crime (K42) |
| early childhood program (I21) | education (I29) |
| early childhood program (I21) | overall rate of return (G11) |
| early childhood program (I21) | benefit-cost ratio (H43) |